8/19/2005

These people are losing it.

Years ago, a sociologist wrote a study called When Prophecy Fails about a 50's UFO cult.. The leaders kept making successive prophecies about the Coming and the End, which successively failed. Rather than question their cultish beliefs, however, the UFO groupies became more fervent believers.. and started seeing confirmation.. in the very failure of their prophecies. This, I believe, is the stage at which the right wing finds itself with respect to the Iraq war. The prophecies of WMDs, al Qaeda links, pro-Western democracy are all a bust. The London attacks, and more attacks in Egypt, Jordan, and other places outside Iraq, along with CIA intelligence estimates, have exploded the flypaper theory beyond any semblence of believability. Yet above Queeg is finding confirmation in its failure.

Martini Republic's Alex blogs:
Someone cut off the Captain's Rum Ration

Normally, you'd think that terrorists utilizing a new weapon against US forces in a country in which the government has been a staunch supporter of the US campaign against world-wide terror would be seen as, well, sort of a bad thing.

A case in point is the recent attack in Jordan (which has been relatively stable and free from major terrorist attacks against US targets) launched against a US Navy vessel using Kaytusha rockets. Those unitiated into conservative punditry might think that this is ungood, yet in the fevered mind of the conservative pundit seeking affirmation for Bush's disastrous bungling in Iraq, it is actually a vindication — sort of the way Cheney explained the exploding violence in Iraq as being a good thing, because it showed that the insurgency was in its last throes. Indeed, according to Captain Queeg, a new attack on a previously peaceful front using a new weapon is a good thing, somehow. Following are his remarks on the Jordan attack, with a few of my own comments bracketed, in italics.

What does that mean? It could indicate that the terrorist network has depleted its resources for suicide bombers, at least outside of Iraq. [do the words "London" and "Tube" ring a bell] That would show that the flypaper theory actually does play out as the Bush administration predicted, and that rather than generating thousands more martyrs to the cause of radical Islam, Iraq simply draws those foreign terrorists who would otherwise attack American interests elsewhere. [so an attack in Jordan shows that invading Iraq is preventing attacks outside Iraq? someone needs to hand this boy a map] This ineffective Katyusha attack also shows that the training and materials used by AQ have degraded significantly [so using a new weapon shows that AQ has fewer materials and training?], or possibly that because of the lack of other resources (human and materiel), they have had to change tactics to the Palestinian-style rocket attacks and have not had the time to master it, to the extent it can be mastered. [or possibly it shows that they have accessed new weapons, and harnessed new capacities in yet another country where they were not operating before Iraq]

Can't these fools see, as Queeg sees, that opening a new arena of combat outside Iraq using new weapons is a sure sign that the flypaper theory is working, and al Qaeda is on the verge of surrender?

Years ago, a sociologist wrote a study called When Prophecy Fails about a 50's UFO cult which believed that aliens were coming any day to remove the true believers before the End of the World. The leaders kept making successive prophecies about the Coming and the End, which successively failed. Rather than question their cultish beliefs, however, the UFO groupies became more fervent believers in their prophecies, and started seeing confirmation of the end of the world and the coming of the saucers in the very failure of their prophecies.

This, I believe, is the stage at which the right wing finds itself with respect to the Iraq war. The prophecies of WMDs, al Qaeda links, pro-Western democracy are all a bust. The London attacks, and more attacks in Egypt, Jordan, and other places outside Iraq, along with CIA intelligence estimates, have exploded the flypaper theory beyond any semblence of believability. Yet above Queeg is finding confirmation in its failure. Flypaper is working — attacks outside Iraq prove it. And its not only him. On Hardball Tuesday night, conservative windbag Melanie Morgan exclaimed, "And, by the way, we're still going to find weapons of mass destruction." Sure, honey, right after the Tooth Fairy brings you that Golden Ticket from the Wonka Bar.

These people are losing it.

Martini Republic - Lead, follow, or have a drink.

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