11/19/2004

ledge of liberty: What Happened In Broward County?

ledge of liberty: What Happened In Broward County?
Yesterday, a UC Berkeley research group found the 2004 results in Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami Dade to be "anomolous," with Bush receiving about 150,000 more votes than you would expect given the registration, demographic, and voting patterns in those counties. The full report is available here: http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/

The Berkeley study confirms what I've been saying for the past week at online discussion forums: the counties whose 2004 results are inconsistent with the 2000 results are Broward and Palm Beach, not the so-called "Dixiecrat" counties.

My calculations are undoubtedly different than the Berkeley research group's, but here are the calculations I ran for Broward county. Actually, first I'll give the punchline, then I'll explain the calculations.

Punchline

Broward county:

Predicted Increase from Gore Total to Kerry Total: 111,030
Predicted Increase from Bush2000 to Bush2004: 19,424
Net Gain: Kerry 91,606

Actual Increase from Gore Total to Kerry Total: 64,657
Actual Increase from Bush2000 to Bush2004: 65,797
Net Gain: Bush 1,140

Bush’s actual increase was 65,797. To give you a sense of the magnitude of the difference between the 2000 and 2004 results, a Bush increase of 65,000 would be as if the entire decrease in votes for third party candidates (1,221), the entire projected turnout for newly registered Republicans (66.57% * 16,907 = 11,254), AND the entire projected turnout for newly registered third party registrations (66.57% * 76,211 = 50,734), all went to Bush, and that’s only 63,210. )

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